There is probably no other topic in the energy industry in Western Europe that polarizes as much as nuclear power. For some, it is the savior in the form of cheap, stable and reliable power generation. For others, it is dangerous, expensive, highly damaging to the environment and associated with unresolved problems (final storage). We want to get an idea of the current global development of nuclear power.
The nuclear power plants (NPPs) currently operating in the world have a capacity of almost exactly 400 GW and generated around 2,600 TWh of power in 2024 – in comparison, Austria’s power generation in 2024: 81.5 TWh. Last year, seven new nuclear power plants with a total capacity of 6.1 GW went into operation. Three of these are located in China – the others in France, India, the USA and the United Arab Emirates. Construction of nine other power plants began last year (six in China, the others in Pakistan, Russia and Egypt). Four reactors with a total capacity of 2.8 GW were shut down in 2024 – two in Canada, one in Russia and one in Taiwan. Commissioning minus shutdowns in 2024 therefore results in an increase of 3.3 GW.
China in particular is relying heavily on nuclear power to meet its ever-increasing demand for power. China is currently in third place with 57 GW of active nuclear power plant capacity – behind the USA and France. However, reactors with a total capacity of 32 GW are currently under construction in China and China is therefore on track to catch up with the USA (currently 97 GW on the grid) in the next few years. Just for comparison: China also commissioned 277 GW of new PV systems and 80 GW of new wind power plants last year!
One technology is important for the further development of nuclear power: so-called SMRs, Small Modular Reactors. These are smaller reactors with an output of up to 300 MW, which should also be significantly cheaper thanks to their modular, space-saving design. Prefabricated components can be prepared and used for these reactors, which in theory would even make series production possible. As with renewables, series production brings significant cost advantages. Refueling is also less frequent – every 3-7 years compared to 1-2 years for conventional reactors. And safety is also said to be higher, as these concepts have a simpler design and focus on passive systems. Sounds good, doesn’t it? However, it is worth noting that the history of nuclear power over the last 80 years has often been a story of broken promises – at least as far as ‘cheap and safe’ is concerned. And indeed, many SMRs are under development and some are even under construction – but they have not yet been successfully tested in practice. And even the World Nuclear Association, the global organization representing the interests of nuclear power, says the following about SMRs: ‘Though SMRs have lower upfront capital cost per unit, their economic competitiveness is still to be proven in practice once they are deployed.’
Contrary to expectations, however, generation from nuclear power plants is not increasing in the long term – the largest output of nuclear power was 2,660 TWh in 2006. Since then, nuclear power generation has stagnated/slightly declined. The significance is even more apparent in relative figures. While the share of nuclear power at the beginning of the 2000s was still around 17%, it was only around 9% in 2024. And with the already proven cost advantage of renewables and independence from fuels, the focus of the expansion of power generation capacity is also on wind and solar. The renewable share of global power generation was 18.5% in 2000 and rose to over 30% by 2023. And this is also plausible, as there is no question of the search for a final storage site or the risk of a nuclear accident with renewables.
Renewables will also have a greater impact on Central European power prices in the coming months than in autumn and winter. The reason: solar feed-in. Standard generation is currently averaging 10 GW and is increasing by 1 GW from week to week, with a full 50 GW expected on 3 April. Overall, the spot market has settled at a lower price level in March with higher PV and higher wind feed-in. The monthly average of EUR 103/MWh on the German EEX spot market is well below the year-to-date average of EUR 125.66/MWh. It should be noted that the first weeks of March were more favorable than the last, in which PV was at 94% of standard generation (9.6 GW) and wind at 73% of standard generation (13.7 GW). In addition, run-of-river generation remains weak, which now also reflects the dry winter season in lower energy volumes. In the outlook, however, we see a different and increasingly bearish picture.
The situation on the gas market is relevant for the spot market. The heating season has officially been over since 1 April and injections into gas storage facilities, which currently stand at 34%, have been running since the end of last week. The EU storage regulation remains a decisive influencing factor. The proposed extension until 2027 and more flexibility in reaching the 90% target are still in the legislative process. Later deadlines and possible deviations in the event of unfavorable market conditions are planned. These mitigating measures are already having an impact on the futures markets: The spread between Q2 2025 and Q1 2026 has fallen significantly in some cases.
In this respect, the development of spot prices is also helping forward prices. The situation has calmed down somewhat following the events at the beginning of the year, when energy prices initially rose sharply and then fell rapidly. As a reminder, the price developments were triggered in particular by meteorological conditions. Low temperatures caused the heating load to rise and gas storage facilities to empty, while at the same time the strong wind doldrums led to high power prices. Prices consolidated in March with milder weather and higher solar feed-in, but still with high volatility due to geopolitical uncertainties. The main reason for the fall in power prices was the price of CO2, which more than compensated for the simultaneous price increases in coal. Two points put particular pressure on the EUA CO2 price in the second half of the week: America’s announcement that it would raise import tariffs on European cars to 25% and reports of France’s desire to regulate the volatile CO2 price more closely by means of price corridors (minimum and maximum price). The LNG supply situation for gas remains stable: in March, imports totaled around 4 TWh/day – the highest level for over a year.
April will be dominated by the same renewable topics: the increase in PV feed-in is putting pressure on spot prices for power. In the first week of April in particular, experts are expecting 121% of PV generation, i.e. a fifth more generation than forecast by the priced-in norm. With this change in supply, spot power prices should continue to fall. On 3 April, 50 GW of PV will be generated in the midday hours. One of the problematic consequences for the energy industry are the associated zero prices in the midday hours, which result in plant shutdowns (hydropower in particular is often affected by this). The futures markets should have reached the lower end for the time being. The price curve for both CO2 and gas is colliding with technical resistance, which would result in a sideways movement. The stable supply from LNG and renewables offsets the stable demand (due to high injection requirements). The geopolitical picture remains fragile: US President Trump is showing increasing impatience with regard to progress in peace talks on Ukraine. There are also discussions about new punitive tariffs against countries with trade deficits – with potential effects on global trade flows and energy prices.
There is probably no other topic in the energy industry in Western Europe that polarizes as much as nuclear power. For some, it is the savior in the form of cheap, stable and reliable power generation. For others, it is dangerous, expensive, highly damaging to the environment and associated with unresolved problems (final storage). We want to get an idea of the current global development of nuclear power.
The nuclear power plants (NPPs) currently operating in the world have a capacity of almost exactly 400 GW and generated around 2,600 TWh of power in 2024 – in comparison, Austria’s power generation in 2024: 81.5 TWh. Last year, seven new nuclear power plants with a total capacity of 6.1 GW went into operation. Three of these are located in China – the others in France, India, the USA and the United Arab Emirates. Construction of nine other power plants began last year (six in China, the others in Pakistan, Russia and Egypt). Four reactors with a total capacity of 2.8 GW were shut down in 2024 – two in Canada, one in Russia and one in Taiwan. Commissioning minus shutdowns in 2024 therefore results in an increase of 3.3 GW.
China in particular is relying heavily on nuclear power to meet its ever-increasing demand for power. China is currently in third place with 57 GW of active nuclear power plant capacity – behind the USA and France. However, reactors with a total capacity of 32 GW are currently under construction in China and China is therefore on track to catch up with the USA (currently 97 GW on the grid) in the next few years. Just for comparison: China also commissioned 277 GW of new PV systems and 80 GW of new wind power plants last year!
One technology is important for the further development of nuclear power: so-called SMRs, Small Modular Reactors. These are smaller reactors with an output of up to 300 MW, which should also be significantly cheaper thanks to their modular, space-saving design. Prefabricated components can be prepared and used for these reactors, which in theory would even make series production possible. As with renewables, series production brings significant cost advantages. Refueling is also less frequent – every 3-7 years compared to 1-2 years for conventional reactors. And safety is also said to be higher, as these concepts have a simpler design and focus on passive systems. Sounds good, doesn’t it? However, it is worth noting that the history of nuclear power over the last 80 years has often been a story of broken promises – at least as far as ‘cheap and safe’ is concerned. And indeed, many SMRs are under development and some are even under construction – but they have not yet been successfully tested in practice. And even the World Nuclear Association, the global organization representing the interests of nuclear power, says the following about SMRs: ‘Though SMRs have lower upfront capital cost per unit, their economic competitiveness is still to be proven in practice once they are deployed.’
Contrary to expectations, however, generation from nuclear power plants is not increasing in the long term – the largest output of nuclear power was 2,660 TWh in 2006. Since then, nuclear power generation has stagnated/slightly declined. The significance is even more apparent in relative figures. While the share of nuclear power at the beginning of the 2000s was still around 17%, it was only around 9% in 2024. And with the already proven cost advantage of renewables and independence from fuels, the focus of the expansion of power generation capacity is also on wind and solar. The renewable share of global power generation was 18.5% in 2000 and rose to over 30% by 2023. And this is also plausible, as there is no question of the search for a final storage site or the risk of a nuclear accident with renewables.
Renewables will also have a greater impact on Central European power prices in the coming months than in autumn and winter. The reason: solar feed-in. Standard generation is currently averaging 10 GW and is increasing by 1 GW from week to week, with a full 50 GW expected on 3 April. Overall, the spot market has settled at a lower price level in March with higher PV and higher wind feed-in. The monthly average of EUR 103/MWh on the German EEX spot market is well below the year-to-date average of EUR 125.66/MWh. It should be noted that the first weeks of March were more favorable than the last, in which PV was at 94% of standard generation (9.6 GW) and wind at 73% of standard generation (13.7 GW). In addition, run-of-river generation remains weak, which now also reflects the dry winter season in lower energy volumes. In the outlook, however, we see a different and increasingly bearish picture.
The situation on the gas market is relevant for the spot market. The heating season has officially been over since 1 April and injections into gas storage facilities, which currently stand at 34%, have been running since the end of last week. The EU storage regulation remains a decisive influencing factor. The proposed extension until 2027 and more flexibility in reaching the 90% target are still in the legislative process. Later deadlines and possible deviations in the event of unfavorable market conditions are planned. These mitigating measures are already having an impact on the futures markets: The spread between Q2 2025 and Q1 2026 has fallen significantly in some cases.
In this respect, the development of spot prices is also helping forward prices. The situation has calmed down somewhat following the events at the beginning of the year, when energy prices initially rose sharply and then fell rapidly. As a reminder, the price developments were triggered in particular by meteorological conditions. Low temperatures caused the heating load to rise and gas storage facilities to empty, while at the same time the strong wind doldrums led to high power prices. Prices consolidated in March with milder weather and higher solar feed-in, but still with high volatility due to geopolitical uncertainties. The main reason for the fall in power prices was the price of CO2, which more than compensated for the simultaneous price increases in coal. Two points put particular pressure on the EUA CO2 price in the second half of the week: America’s announcement that it would raise import tariffs on European cars to 25% and reports of France’s desire to regulate the volatile CO2 price more closely by means of price corridors (minimum and maximum price). The LNG supply situation for gas remains stable: in March, imports totaled around 4 TWh/day – the highest level for over a year.
April will be dominated by the same renewable topics: the increase in PV feed-in is putting pressure on spot prices for power. In the first week of April in particular, experts are expecting 121% of PV generation, i.e. a fifth more generation than forecast by the priced-in norm. With this change in supply, spot power prices should continue to fall. On 3 April, 50 GW of PV will be generated in the midday hours. One of the problematic consequences for the energy industry are the associated zero prices in the midday hours, which result in plant shutdowns (hydropower in particular is often affected by this). The futures markets should have reached the lower end for the time being. The price curve for both CO2 and gas is colliding with technical resistance, which would result in a sideways movement. The stable supply from LNG and renewables offsets the stable demand (due to high injection requirements). The geopolitical picture remains fragile: US President Trump is showing increasing impatience with regard to progress in peace talks on Ukraine. There are also discussions about new punitive tariffs against countries with trade deficits – with potential effects on global trade flows and energy prices.
Good luck with your energy decisions!
Yours,
Marlene Aschauer and Felix Diwok
For the Inercomp team